The Bank of England has offered us a range of scenarios, anticipating potential outcomes from different types of Brexit, based on a long series of assumptions. These, for example, are possible eventualities relating to unemployment:
Jacob Rees Mogg has been complaining about the ‘wild inaccuracies’ of previous Treasury forecasts. That’s quite irrelevant. A projection is a conditional statement, saying what will happen subject to certain assumptions; a scenario is an alternative possible future; a prediction is a statement about what will happen. Projections and scenarios are not predictions. Putting lifeboats on passenger ships is not based on a prediction about what is going to happen; it’s a preparation for a particular scenario. It doesn’t mean the ship is sinking. Mind, in this case it might be.