I have been looking at the January 2012 statistical release for the review of Employment and Support Allowance. According to the tables
- 1,023,000 claimants have been reassessed (table 1a)
- 622,000 have been found fit for work (table 1a)
- 521,000 of those found fit for work have appealed (table 3), and
- 38% of those cases heard so far (80,000 out of 210,000) have been successful (table 3).
The implication is that we are are looking at a very large number of decisions that are provably wrong – more than 30% of all decisions that people are fit for work. The DWP and claimants have been forced through an expensive and time-consuming appeal process to set things right. This is a shambles.
Further note. I have amended this entry to remove a predictive figure. This was a quick, back-of-the-envelope calculation. I’ve been delighted – but taken aback – by the interest that my guesstimate attracted, but the more I look at it, the less confidence I have in any possible prediction I might make. In particular,
- the rate of decision-making has slowed,
- the statistical information in the tables does not cover the same time periods, and none of the information is particularly up to date
- the level of new appeals seems to be falling
- the success rate seems to be falling, and
- as gwenhwyfaer comments, large numbers of appeals appear to be disappearing from the process without explanation, and I cannot assume that they will eventually have decisions made.