I shared a platform this week with Gareth Morgan of Ferret Information Systems; I have added a link to his blog here. Gareth has done an extensive amount of modelling to examine the impact of specific benefit changes, subject of course to the proviso that what actually happens might prove to be very different. It is likely, however, that the longer the government leaves the messy business of sorting out new rules and regulations for Universal Credit, the more they will need simply to recycle the old rules; it is much easier than developing new ones. That is why some rules have survived to the present day from the 1911 National Insurance Act.
Gareth has also checked the likely outcome of the Liberal’s flagship policy, raising the tax threshold to £10,000. This, he calculates, will be worth £9.71 pw for those on incomes up to £115,000, and £1.37 pw for low paid workers.