Cutting Child Benefit

The government intends to cut Child Benefit by suspending payments to families where one person falls into the higher tax bracket. There are two main objections to that proposal. One is that it is inequitable: it allows households on higher incomes to retain the benefit while cutting it to some people on lower incomes. The second is that it is impractical; there is no easy way of identifying who should be affected.

The main argument for cutting Child Benefit seems to be that it will help to cut the deficit. If the government wanted to increase the burden on richer families, it has the option of clawing back the benefit through the tax system. It would make more sense to tax all higher rate payers, rather than only those with children. If the government was serious about cutting the deficit, they would be raising tax. The fact they are not talking about raising tax is a strong indication that this is not really about balancing the books. They are focusing on public spending, which is quite a different issue.

Welfare under the new Act

I shared a platform this week with Gareth Morgan of Ferret Information Systems; I have added a link to his blog here. Gareth has done an extensive amount of modelling to examine the impact of specific benefit changes, subject of course to the proviso that what actually happens might prove to be very different. It is likely, however, that the longer the government leaves the messy business of sorting out new rules and regulations for Universal Credit, the more they will need simply to recycle the old rules; it is much easier than developing new ones. That is why some rules have survived to the present day from the 1911 National Insurance Act.

Gareth has also checked the likely outcome of the Liberal’s flagship policy, raising the tax threshold to £10,000. This, he calculates, will be worth £9.71 pw for those on incomes up to £115,000, and £1.37 pw for low paid workers.

Freedom of Information requests

Various Freedom of Information requests have been made recently to the Department for Work and Pensions about the mandatory imposition of work experience. This process has produced copies of the guidance issued by the DWP, including a recent revision removing instructions to JCP staff to mandate claimants. There is a full set of documents covering mandatory experience here and a list of related FoI requests and their returns at http://helpmeinvestigate.com/welfare/ .

I’ve also posted this information to the Social Policy discussion list at JISCmail, because it relates to a long-standing debate in Social Policy. The Social Policy Association published guidelines over two years ago which stated that researchers have to obtain the consent of participants, and allow them to withdraw from the research. I think the guidelines are misconceived, and FoI requests are an illustration of why I think so. First, some information is public, not private; it is not under the control of the people who happen to know it. Second, Social Policy has an important critical function, and that does not depend on the consent of government. Those who are interested in the arguments might want to look at my piece on “Research without Consent” in Social Research Update or the criticism of the SPA guidelines that Dave Byrne and I made in Policy World.

Rising employment, rising unemployment

The latest figures from the DWP show that both employment and unemployment figures continue to rise. In the last quarter, there were 60,000 more people in employment, and 11,000 more vacancies. At the same time, there were 48,000 more unemployed people. Part of the discrepancy might be explained by 78,000 previously inactive people who are now considered to be part of the labour market, including both lone parents and claimants with incapacities who are now required to be ‘actively seeking work’. If not for “welfare reform”, unemployment might have fallen.

Voluntary work experience

The government has been defending the Work Experience programme on the basis that it is voluntary, and that it has excellent outcomes. Neither of those points is clear. In relation to the voluntary nature of placements, benefit claimants are subject to a range of requirements, including the tests of actively seeking work, “taking steps” each week to improve employability and secure employment, following instructions from employment advisers, and having benefits suspended if the placement is not completed. The legal case being taken by Cait Reilly complains that she was instructed to take on an unpaid placement. The figures just released describe a range of mandatory and voluntary activity, with mandatory referrals dominating.

In relation to outcomes, the picture is less clear, because the recent statistical release does not say anything about outcomes. The claim that 50% of people on placements “leave benefit” is suspect. A posting by Jonathan Portes of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research comments:
“well over 60% of young jobseekers leave JSA within three months, suggesting that the record of the Work Experience programme – 50% off benefit in three months – is pretty unimpressive at best”.
He cites other work suggesting that these placements may be slowing down the rate at which people move into work. That is not conclusive, because the figures the work is based on are unclear. It does, however, suggest that the government’s claims about the success of the programme are misleading.

Managing the Work Programme

Some officials working for A4E have been accused of mis-reporting their success in placing claimants in jobs. I have no way of knowing whether the specific allegations of fraud are justified, but this may be a symptom of a more general problem – what happens in a situation where the DWP cannot oversee the outcomes itself. The Office for Government Commerce commented in 2007 that the DWP did not have ”the commercial capacity, the management information or the appropriate organisational structure in place to manage providers and markets successfully.” In relation to the Pathways project, the National Audit Office found that private contractors had underestimated the difficulties of working with the client group, and that the effect of sub-contracts was to limit the control that DWP commissioners were able to exercise over the work. The same problems seem likely to persist in the Work Programme. This is a structural issue.

The return of the roundsman system

There were demonstrations at the weekend to protest the position where young people are forced to take a four-week ‘Work Experience’ in order to remain entitled to Jobseekers Allowance. Tesco’s advertisements said, apparently mistakenly, that the posts would be permanent. Many of the critics consider that such posts should not exist at all. Newly published figures tell us, however, that over 30,000 people, mainly young people, have been sent to such placements.

The idea that people should work for their benefit is most strongly influenced by the idea of “workfare” from the United States. Workfare is based partly in a belief in the value of work, partly in a desire to deter people from claiming benefit. Representing workfare as “work experience” is an attempt to claim a positive value in the experience.

The “work experience” placements differ, however, in an important respect: the economic value of the labour goes not to the government, or the benefits agency, or to the public, but to private employers. Under the Old Poor Law, paupers were hired out to local enterprises as cheap labour. This was called the “roundsman system”. The designers of the “New Poor Law” were convinced that this undermined the position of the independent labourer, and the principles they introduced – including the abolition of poor relief outside the workhouse – were supposed to protect the position of people who worked. The same kinds of fear are prompted by the current arrangements. In the nineteenth century, many employers hired workers by the day. Present-day employers in the UK don’t in general work that way, but they do have “core” and “peripheral” workers, and they can vary their capacity by taking on short term, casual staff. If employers can draw on a pool of temporary, peripheral staff for free, why should they pay for casual employment?

New fraud figures

A new government report explains that fraud costs the public sector £21.2bn a year. It claims that “The majority of the fraud loss is due to fraud against the tax and benefits systems”. That presumably is why Panorama recently mis-reported benefit fraud as being £22 billion. What the report’s introduction does not explain – and what the statement disguises – is that the benefits systems does not belong with the larger figure at all. Tax fraud is estimated at £15 billion; the next largest loss is through procurement fraud, at £2.4 billion; and benefit and tax credit fraud together come to £1.5 billion. Annex 1 has the estimates.

The case for exempting some people from reassessment

On 8th February I suggested that some groups might reasonably be exempted from the process of reassessment for ESA, and mentioned in particular “young people with severe disabilities from early ages or people with defined conditions like cancer”. The recent statistical release tells us that these groups have a quite different profile from most other claimants. As things currently stand 12% of all claimants are being placed in the “support group”, those who are not expected to work. In the case of “neoplasms”, or cancer, that rises to 67.7% of assessed claims; in the case of “congenital” or “chromosomal” conditions, it is 66.7%.

ESA Appeals

I have been looking at the January 2012 statistical release for the review of Employment and Support Allowance. According to the tables

  • 1,023,000 claimants have been reassessed (table 1a)
  • 622,000 have been found fit for work (table 1a)
  • 521,000 of those found fit for work have appealed (table 3), and
  • 38% of those cases heard so far (80,000 out of 210,000) have been successful (table 3).

The implication is that we are are looking at a very large number of decisions that are provably wrong – more than 30% of all decisions that people are fit for work. The DWP and claimants have been forced through an expensive and time-consuming appeal process to set things right. This is a shambles.

Further note. I have amended this entry to remove a predictive figure. This was a quick, back-of-the-envelope calculation. I’ve been delighted – but taken aback – by the interest that my guesstimate attracted, but the more I look at it, the less confidence I have in any possible prediction I might make. In particular,

  • the rate of decision-making has slowed,
  • the statistical information in the tables does not cover the same time periods, and none of the information is particularly up to date
  • the level of new appeals seems to be falling
  • the success rate seems to be falling, and
  • as gwenhwyfaer comments, large numbers of appeals appear to be disappearing from the process without explanation, and I cannot assume that they will eventually have decisions made.